Property values in New Zealand edged up by 0.1% in September, breaking a run of five consecutive monthly falls, according to Cotality NZ’s latest hedonic Home Value Index (HVI). The national median value now sits at $810,141.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says September’s slight rise is consistent with lower mortgage rates, as well as early tentative signs of an economic turnaround and an upward trend in property sales volumes.
“That said, September’s rise in values was clearly marginal, and it’s far too early to conclude that this marks the start of a new, sustained lift,” he says.
“After all, the stock of available listings, while falling, remains relatively high, and caution continues to pervade the market.”
He says September’s small rise needs to be viewed in the context of a cumulative -1.6% drop over the five months from April to August.
“On top of that, even though some economic measures, including filled jobs, are looking encouraging, others are less positive. In short, we’re not on solid economic ground just yet.
“Of course, there’s always two sides to the housing market coin, and it’s a good time to be a buyer, provided they can get the finance. In particular, first home buyers remain a strong presence in the market, and mortgaged multiple property owners have returned in greater numbers too.”
Across the main centres, Wellington dipped by -0.4% in September, with Auckland also down (-0.2%). Hamilton was flat in September, with Dunedin rising by 0.3%, Christchurch lifting by 0.6%, and Tauranga recording a more substantial 1.3% increase.
Auckland property values in September 2025
Auckland’s various sub-markets were patchy in September, with Waitakere rising by 0.3%, Rodney by 0.2%, and Franklin sneaking up 0.1%. But Papakura edged down by -0.1%, as did Auckland City, while Manukau (-0.4%) and North Shore (-0.6%) recorded larger falls.
The -0.2% drop recorded in September across Auckland as a whole reflected the fact that the largest sub-markets were the weakest — almost 70% of dwellings in the super-city are in Auckland City, Manukau, or North Shore.
Compared to the previous peak, the falls across Auckland continue to range from -20% down to -24%.
“The stock of available listings across the super-city has been gradually declining this year, potentially lessening buyers’ pricing power to a degree,” Davidson says.
“But several economic sentiment indicators or surveys for Auckland remain subdued, and this cautious mood is clearly pervading the property market too.”
Wellington property values in September 2025
The wider Wellington area remained soft in September, with only Upper Hutt managing to record a rise (0.5%) in property values. The other main sub-markets all fell, with those declines ranging from -0.2% in Wellington City down to -0.9% in Lower Hutt.
The falls from peak remain significant across the region too, ranging from around -23% in Kapiti Coast and Porirua, to -26% in Lower Hutt.
“Wellington is another area where the stock of available listings has drifted lower this year. But the market still remains in favour of buyers, with plenty of choice out there.
“The subdued state of the Wellington economy and muted confidence both remain a factor in its sluggish housing market too,” Davidson says.
Regional property values
There’s a growing body of evidence that the two-speed economy — with provincial areas outperforming on the back of strong agricultural returns — might be starting to filter into the property market too.
Indeed, apart from a drop in values in Rotorua and a small dip in Whangarei, many other provincial towns and cities rose in September — including New Plymouth (0.7%), Invercargill (0.8%), and Gisborne (2.5%). In New Plymouth and Invercargill, property values are at least 3% above this time last year too.
“We shouldn’t get carried away with any flow-on effects from the farming upturn into the provincial property markets, given there’s still a degree of uncertainty across the wider economy,” Davidson says.
“But September nevertheless showed a pretty clear urban-rural property market divergence, which we’ll keep a close eye on.”
Property market outlook
Looking ahead, Davidson notes that it now seems pretty likely the official cash rate will go below the previously-expected trough of 2.5%, as the Reserve Bank tries to shore up the economy and reduce spare capacity — hence lowering the chances that inflation undershoots the 1-3% target range sometime down the track.
“This also suggests that mortgage rates could have a bit further to fall yet, especially for floating or short-term fixed loans. With around 45% of existing mortgages either floating or fixed and set to reprice within the next six months, those borrowers will be feeling a little happier.”
“For now, property values remain pretty subdued. But provincial areas seem to be turning a corner, and there does seem to be growing scope for values to start rising more consistently in 2026, albeit a fresh boom seems unlikely — especially with the economy and labour market only set to recover slowly.
“The recent rise in the physical supply of property relative to population, as well as the lurking restraint of debt to income ratio limits for mortgage lending are other reasons for caution about house price growth over the medium term,” Davidson says.
For more on this story, visit www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-property-values-edge-up-in-september-ending-five-month-slide.
